Banking on the Modi wave which started way back in 2014, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won the key assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Manipur, and Goa this year. The BJP’s win in four states was a much-needed victory for the saffron party after the 2019 Lok Sabha polls due to its setbacks in assembly polls in West Bengal, Maharashtra, and Jharkhand.
However, the BJP despite its stupendous show in 2022 assembly polls might fall short of the majority mark for Presidential elections slated to be held this year. This could be attributed to its reduced strength in the legislative assemblies of Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand.
In July 2021, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) was short of only 0.05 votes for the majority mark in Presidential polls. However, it is now short of 1.2 per cent of the magic number after its strength was reduced in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand assemblies, according to a report by The Print.
Earlier, the BJP had over 300 MLAs in the 403-member Uttar Pradesh assembly, while it has 57 seats in the 70-member Uttarakhand assembly. However, after the 2022 polls, the BJP has 255 and 47 MLAs in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand assemblies respectively.
For a Presidential election, the vote value of an MP is fixed at 708. For an MLA, that depends upon the state’s population. Uttar Pradesh MLAs have the highest value of 208. On the other hand, Uttarakhand MLAs have a vote value of 64.
Not just Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand, NDA’s numbers have also reduced in Manipur and Goa where the vote value of an MLA is 18 and 20 respectively. It should be noted that NDA has 20 and 32 MLAs in Goa and Manipur respectively.
All these loss of MLAs will likely have an impact on the NDA in Presidential elections where the total vote value is about 10.93 lakh. However, this doesn’t mean that all is lost for the NDA. If the BJP manages to convince Biju Janata Dal (BJD) and YSR Congress, it can secure a majority comfortably.
The BJD has 21 MPs, who have 14,868 vote strength. Similarly, YSR Congress has 22 MPs with a vote strength of 19,824. If the BJP finds support from these two regional parties, the NDA would be easily able to cross the majority mark for the 2022 Presidential elections.
The tenure of President Ram Nath Kovind will end on July 24.
